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Palm oil prices fall from high levels and long-term outlook remains bullish
2020-01-20

Since this week, palm oil prices have fallen sharply. The main contract disk prices once fell below the position of 6,300 yuan / ton. The market is therefore worried about whether the trend of palm oil prices has reversed.




Taken together, palm oil prices are still in an upward trend. The current palm oil prices have experienced a sharp correction, which is mainly affected by several factors.




First, the price of palm oil has risen rapidly, and early bulls have accumulated large profits. Many bulls chose to close their positions at a position close to 6,500 yuan / ton, which made the May contract ’s holdings appear. A big decline.




Second, the data from the South West Malaysia showed that Malaysia ’s output decline from January 1st to 10th was too low, only down 1.47% year-on-year. The market is worried about whether Malaysia's output reduction can continue.




Thirdly, the friction between the Indian and Malaysian governments has intensified. The Indian government privately warned palm oil importers not to purchase from Malaysia. This 彩宝贝 caused panic among some traders. These factors may exacerbate market price volatility in the short term, but they are not enough to reverse the current trend of palm oil prices.




The first is the production reduction data in southern western Malaysia. The data in southern western Malaysia itself fluctuates extremely frequently. The change in output from 1 to 10 days does not make it clear that the reduction in Malaysia ’s production has decreased. We can track the previous month ’s Malaysian palm oil production. Changes can be found in the past 10 years, palm oil production from January to February has seen a significant decline in chain production, and in such a large reduction in 2016, Malaysia ’s palm oil production in January reached a reduction 19.27%. In a normal year, Malaysia ’s palm oil production will decline significantly from January to February. The current data guidance in southern western Malaysia does not have much reference significance.




According to the statistics of historical data, after continuous output reductions in January-February, March production usually recovers greatly, but this is only an increase on the basis of February production. Low level. Malaysian palm oil production usually enters April to May to reach a more significant value. The peak in global palm oil consumption is often the month before Ramadan.




Ramadan in 2020 is earlier than previous years, and it will enter Ramadan on April 24, which means that consumer demand for palm oil will start to rise in late March, and Malaysia ’s palm oil exports in April will rise significantly.




India's resistance to Malaysian palm oil imports has a very small impact on the market. According to SEA data, India's edible oil inventory was only 1.511 million tons at the beginning of December last year, which was lower than the 680,000 tons in the same period last year. India's dependence on vegetable oil imports determines that palm oil is still the main body of food consumption. Under the premise of reducing imports of Malaysian palm oil, India's increase in imports from Indonesia will become an inevitable result. This will cause Indonesia's export prices to rise, causing other countries to switch to Malaysia's imports. Indian policy changes will only adjust the global trade flow of palm oil, but will not reduce consumer demand for palm oil.




Finally, it is about the progress of the China-US trade agreement. The most important point of view in the bearish palm oil market is the narrowing of the soybean palm price gap, and the negative outlook for soybean oil. Without considering the progress of the China-US trade agreement, Brazil's soybeans will be listed in large quantities in March, but due to the impact of shipping schedules, a large number of soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong in April, which means that domestic imports of soybeans will not be much The increase in domestic oil consumption will continue to be dominated by soybean oil. In fact, domestic soybean oil stocks are still declining. On January 15th, the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement was officially signed, and China promised to increase imports of USD 32 billion in agricultural products in the next two years. Since the signing of this agreement, China has not canceled the tariffs imposed on US soybeans. In the future, China will still increase the amount of US soybean imports by issuing quotas, and it is expected that some of them will go into the state reserve inventory. In the short term, it is expected that the import of US soybeans will be difficult to advance rapidly. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the first half of the year will still be dominated by South America. The situation of tight domestic soybean supply and demand will only slow down after March. Domestic soybean oil stocks will continue to decrease before March, and rapeseed oil imports may still be limited. Soybean oil is expected to enter the stage of increasing stocks after March, but it will remain at a relatively low level for some time.




For palm oil, the increase in the future supply of soybean oil does not mean that domestic consumption has decreased. Due to the impact of temperature, December to February this year was the lowest point for domestic palm oil consumption. After entering March, it will be due to temperature The rise in consumption has led to an increase in the consumption of palm oil. The trend of domestic palm oil prices will continue to rise in the future, but the price gap with soybean oil will further narrow. Due to the previous long-term rise, the release of short-term bearish 彩宝贝 in the market has made some bulls choose to take profit and close their positions, resulting in a large drop in the current palm oil price. However, after the current round of adjustments, palm oil prices will return to rise In the trend, the bulls can enter the market by increasing the position at 6000 ~ 6100 yuan / ton. By mid-to-late March, the profit can be closed and there will still be higher returns.

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